The Philippine midterm elections are fast approaching and the political landscape is abuzz with alignments and realignments. Politicians are now looking at the filing of candidacy season this October 2024 evaluating which positions to seek, and gearing up for intense electoral battles. While obtaining a solid (and fat!) campaign chest is usually viewed as the cornerstone of a winning campaign, Solistrat Inc. provides ample evidence to highlight that financial resources alone are not a guarantee for victory. In many cases, politicians with abundant resources still find themselves on the losing side, primarily because their funds are not strategically deployed.
This reality underscores the critical need for political mapping and surveys as foundational elements for efficient and effective election campaign management. Solistrat Inc., a leading provider of political consulting services, has demonstrated through its extensive experience that these tools can significantly enhance a campaign’s chances of success.
The Importance of Political Mapping
Political mapping involves a comprehensive analysis of the electoral landscape, identifying key stakeholders, understanding voter demographics, and pinpointing regions where a candidate can either solidify support or make inroads. This strategic approach offers several advantages:
Targeted Resource Allocation: By understanding the electoral map, campaigns can allocate their resources more effectively. Instead of spreading funds thinly across all regions, candidates can focus on areas with the highest potential for gaining votes, maximizing the impact of their spending.
Voter Segmentation: Political mapping helps in segmenting the electorate into distinct groups based on various factors such as age, socio-economic status, and political leanings. This allows for tailored messaging that resonates with specific voter blocs, increasing the likelihood of winning their support.
Competitor Analysis: Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of opponents is crucial. Political mapping provides insights into competitors’ strongholds and vulnerabilities, enabling campaigns to devise strategies that exploit these weaknesses while defending against their strengths.
During the 2022 elections, a client invited me to join his campaign team. After discussing the terms, we decided to limit my involvement due to a fundamental difference in approach—he preferred reallocating funds from surveys to hiring showbiz personalities for high-profile events. He believed that voters are more drawn to entertainment and would respond better to a visible, celebrity-endorsed presence than data-driven strategies. To him, the emotional pull and excitement that celebrities bring would overshadow the insights and precision that surveys could offer in shaping the campaign’s direction.
In modern election campaigns, it’s not uncommon to see grand rallies, vibrant parades, and flashy events meant to capture public attention. These event-driven campaigns are designed to create impactful moments, but do they really resonate with voters at a deeper level, or are they merely spectacles that fizzle out once the event is over? This article delves into the strengths and limitations of event-driven campaigns and why political success may require more than memorable rallies and staged appearances.
The Philippine health system has been evolving to address the needs of a diverse population with varying access to healthcare. Ensuring that all Filipinos receive quality health services remains a significant challenge, shaped by health financing, governance, and recent public health developments.
The Structure of the Philippine Health System
The Philippine health system is a blend of public and private sectors. The Department of Health (DOH) oversees basic public health services, while local government units (LGUs) work to make healthcare more accessible at the community level. The public system includes various levels of care, from local health stations to specialized hospitals, while private providers offer a range of services from primary care to specialized treatments. Despite these structures, challenges like uneven resource distribution, limited access in remote areas, and financial constraints persist.
Are you aware of how your organization is performing? Is it still aligned with the goals and vision set during its inception? In today’s dynamic and competitive business environment, strategic planning is essential for organizations aiming to achieve sustainable growth and maintain a competitive edge. This article explores key categories of strategic planning tools designed to enhance organizational performance and strategic decision-making.
Are you gearing up for an election and debating the perfect moment to declare your candidacy? Or are you too excited to wait until the official filing date? Timing your candidacy declaration is a strategic decision that can make or break your campaign. Declaring early offers a mix of advantages and potential drawbacks. Let’s dive into both sides, with real-world examples from recent political campaigns to guide you.
Are you an entrepreneur whose operations have become increasingly difficult due to an unfavorable local business environment? Are you an investor struggling to start because your target local market faces challenges with the ease and cost of doing business? Are you a civil society organization unable to engage with the local government unit despite favorable policies for CSO-LGU engagements under the Local Government Code and other national government policies?
If you answered yes to any of these questions, political mapping might be the strategic tool you need. Traditionally viewed as a method exclusively for political campaigns, political mapping offers immense benefits for businesses and civil society organizations (CSOs) alike. By understanding the intricacies of political mapping and leveraging its insights, these sectors can mitigate risks, make informed decisions, and foster a more stable business environment.
In political campaigns, the difference between victory and defeat often hinges on the strategic allocation of resources. When time is short and resources are limited, targeting vote-rich bellwether areas becomes crucial. These regions, known for their predictive value and large voter bases, can make or break a campaign.
Bellwether Areas are regions that historically predict the overall election results. Winning in these areas not only provides valuable insights into the broader voter sentiment but also generates the momentum needed to secure a wider victory.
Vote-Rich Areas boast a large number of registered voters, making them high-impact regions. Securing a substantial share of votes in these areas can significantly influence the overall election outcome.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a catalyst for change across various sectors, and the world of research is no exception. As the pandemic unfolded, researchers were faced with unprecedented challenges and constraints, sparking a radical transformation in methodologies, collaboration, and data dissemination. This article explores the significant ways in which the pandemic has reshaped research practices.
Embracing Digital Collaboration
With travel restrictions and social distancing norms in place, face-to-face collaboration became a relic of the past. Researchers turned to digital platforms for collaboration, leading to an increased reliance on virtual meetings, cloud-based tools, and digital communication channels. This shift not only sustained research activities but also broadened the scope of international collaboration, transcending geographical barriers.
A little over month left for 2022 Philippine Elections, Solistrat started to give free crash course on environmental scanning (ES) and political mapping (PM) for select campaign managers on Saturday, April 2.
The first session was attended by campaign managers and some of their team members from the provinces of Bataan, Zamboanga, and Bulacan. For one hour and thirty minutes, exclusive participants are able to learn the fundamentals of ES-PM in preparation and implementation of electoral campaign efforts of a candidate.
Other important aspects of successful campaign implementation are shared, with empirical examples and case studies from previous experiences of Solistrat team. The session also gives chance for the participants to ask questions and relevant tips in accordance to their own endeavors.
Mr. Jay Carizo, the Co-Founder of Solistrat, delivered the first session of the crash course series. Another two free sessions will be offered in the week of April 3-9. Interested campaign management teams can join by reaching out to Solistrat via solistrat.consult@gmail.com or through Solistrat’s Facebook page.
Sometime ago I was commissioned by a local politician to conduct a survey adding that I should make him appear winner in the results. I was taken aback and asked about the real purpose of the survey he wanted. Was it for campaign strategy development or for propaganda? He replied that he wants both. I told him I can only do the first and if the results are in his favor, he can use the same for his messaging. He was surprised and said, “How come the previous pollsters I commissioned can do both?”
It took me sometime to explain how scientific surveys are conducted, how the respondents are selected, how questionnaires are developed, and how data are analyzed. It was squeezing a semester or two of research methods in an hour and a half.
Should we trust surveys?
Sometime ago I was commissioned by a local politician to conduct a survey adding that I should make him appear winner in the results. I was taken aback and asked about the real purpose of the survey he wanted. Was it for campaign strategy development or for propaganda? He replied that he wants both. I told him I can only do the first and if the results are in his favor, he can use the same for his messaging. He was surprised and said, “How come the previous pollsters I commissioned can do both?”
It took me sometime to explain how scientific surveys are conducted, how the respondents are selected, how questionnaires are developed, and how data are analyzed. It was squeezing a semester or two of research methods in an hour and a half.
The rise of “kalye surveys” and social media polls has tainted the credibility and reputation of legitimate and scientific surveys. In fact, some politicians could easily switch on and off the polling apps in social media, ask their followers to vote, and discard the results when these are not to their liking. A case in point is the Cavite governor who, rooting for Bongbong Marcos, deleted his tweet when Leni Robredo won in the poll he conducted. In later public pronouncements, he disputed his own survey and claimed that it was Marcos who won.
Was the survey wrong, or was it his intention?
Data is data and whatever the results are, we cannot and should not automatically brush aside the results. But there are things that should be made clear – the objective of the survey, the data gathering methodology and platform used, the period the data was gathered, the size and selection method of the sample population, and the treatment and analysis of data. Results can be skewed to suit one’s objectives depending on the other variables mentioned and in the case of Cavite’s governor, he used a wrong platform for data collection. Robredo garnered 81% of the 20,684 votes while Marcos only got a measly 11%. Had the governor used Facebook, the results could have been different.
But of course, even if he used Facebook, he may just be fooling himself and his presidential candidate. As I told the local politician who asked for a survey, the figures will be useful for propaganda purposes. Nothing more, nothing less.
Albay’s Second District Congressman, Joey Salceda, however, knew what he wants and has an appreciation for data. A few months ago, Salceda surveyed his Facebook followers who their preferred presidential candidate is. The results favored Robredo and a few days later, Salceda threw his support to the Vice President. This is because Salceda knows his objective along with the crowd – his followers whose sentiments he would like to understand, at least in the choice for presidential candidate to support.
Surveys are a result of a fleeting moment. Yesterday’s survey results may be different from today’s. It is like getting a glass of water in the middle of a flowing river. The results are true only during the moment you scoop the water, and how you did it. A survey respondent who claimed that he was poor during the data gathering may have won a lottery ticket the next day and thus changed his status and perspective. Survey results done a month ago may be valid during the time it was conducted but could already be passé after the #OlymPINKS or the series of volunteer-organized rallies for Robredo, or after Marcos’s refusal to attend the presidential debates, or both. That is, assuming that the methodologies for the sample selection and data gathering are scientifically and objectively done.
Of course, the processing and statistical treatment of data also matters. I have read a number of reports done by a communications agency that consolidated a number of Facebook surveys conducted in different periods and presented them as if it speaks of the voting preference of all the 65.7 million Filipino voters. Well, first and foremost, not all Filipinos are in Facebook and not all who are in the social media are voters. Second, consolidating the surveys to make it appear that the study was based on a large number of sample population is also violating simple common sense. A Facebook user could have multiple accounts, and the same person could have participated in a number of polls that were included in the consolidation. In a sense, the communication agency is peddling a wrong information.
So, should we trust the surveys? The answer is yes if its objective is clear, and the methodologies are transparent particularly on how the data was gathered, processed and analyzed; how the sample was computed and selected; and when were these surveys conducted. Otherwise, treat them as mere part of campaign propaganda. The local politician took these to heart and had been winning his elections until his retirement.
This article was first published in the Albay Journal.
