Are you gearing up for an election and debating the perfect moment to declare your candidacy? Or are you too excited to wait until the official filing date? Timing your candidacy declaration is a strategic decision that can make or break your campaign. Declaring early offers a mix of advantages and potential drawbacks. Let’s dive into both sides, with real-world examples from recent political campaigns to guide you.
Benefits of Early Declaration
1. Increased Visibility and Name Recognition. Declaring candidacy early provides candidates with a head start in building their public profile. For example, Barack Obama’s early announcement in February 2007 for the 2008 Presidential Election allowed him to gradually build a robust presence, eventually leading to his historic win. Emmanuel Macron likewise declared early his intention to run for President in the 2017 French elections. His early declaration allowed him to build a new political movement, La République En Marche!, and gain significant media attention and public support. Macron’s visibility and fresh approach resonated with voters, leading to his victory in the election.
2. Fundraising Opportunities. An extended campaign period offers more time to raise funds. Hillary Clinton’s early declaration for the 2016 Presidential Election helped her amass a significant war chest, providing a financial edge in both the primary and general elections.
3. Building a Strong Campaign Infrastructure. Time is a valuable asset when constructing a campaign team and strategy. Joe Biden’s early start for the 2020 Presidential Election allowed his team to establish a well-organized campaign infrastructure, essential for managing a national campaign effectively. In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto’s early declaration for the 2019 Presidential Election allowed him to consolidate his political base and engage in extensive campaign activities. Although he did not win, his early campaign helped maintain a strong presence and significant vote share that led him to the presidential seat in the 2024 elections.
4. Setting the Agenda. Early candidates can influence the political conversation by addressing key issues first. Bernie Sanders’ early declaration for the 2020 Democratic primary enabled him to bring progressive issues to the forefront, pushing other candidates to adopt similar stances.
5. Securing Key Endorsements. Early declarations give candidates more time to secure endorsements. In the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. benefited from early endorsements from influential political figures and groups, bolstering his campaign.
6. Creating Momentum. Generating early momentum can be crucial. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s early and energetic campaign for New York’s 14th Congressional District in 2018 helped her gain national attention and support, leading to her unexpected victory over a long-time incumbent. The same with Obama as well as Joko Widodo of Indonesia. Widodo’s early announcement for the 2014 Presidential Election allowed him to leverage his popularity and build a broad coalition. His early start also helped him gain media attention and set a narrative around his reformist track record, leading to his victory.
Drawbacks of Early Declaration
But of course, not all early birds gets the vote. The following are the disadvantages of declaring electoral intentions early.
1. Voter Fatigue. Prolonged campaigns can lead to voter fatigue. By the time the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election rolled around, some voters felt overwhelmed by the constant campaigning, which could dampen voter enthusiasm and turnout. Voter fatigue also hit Mar Roxas and his supporters in the 2016 Philippine Presidential Elections. From being a frontrunner in the pre-election polls, his numbers dipped in favor of Rodrigo Duterte who became a new participant in the presidential race.
2. Increased Scrutiny
The longer a candidate is in the race, the more time there is for scrutiny. Early in her 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton faced extensive media coverage and criticism over her email server scandal, which persisted throughout her campaign. The same with Manny Villar and Jejomar Binay in the 2010 and 2016 Philippine Presidential Elections, respectively. Their projects, both private and public, were unearth and made an issue. Grace Poe also adds to this list as her citizenship was questioned. When the Supreme Court finally declared on April 9 that she is a natural born citizen, her poll numbers increased but could not anymore be sustained towards the 2016 election day.
3. Resource Strain. Maintaining a lengthy campaign can deplete resources. Jeb Bush’s early and well-funded campaign for the 2016 Republican primary eventually faced financial strain, leading to a reduction in staff and resources before he exited the race. This is also the case of Anies Baswedan during the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election. Baswedan’s early declaration has put pressure on him to maintain momentum and manage resources effectively. This led to disgruntled supporters and, because of the intense scrutiny and criticism he was subjected to, he lost the race.
4. Opponent Counterstrategies. Early candidates give opponents more time to strategize and counter their moves. In the 2016 Philippine Presidential Election, Jejomar Binay’s early declaration allowed his rivals to effectively campaign against him, ultimately leading to his defeat. The same with Aburizal Bakrie of Indonesia in the 2014 Presidential Elections. Because he declared earlym his campaign faced challenges, including a lack of popularity and negative media coverage. The prolonged campaign period exposed these weaknesses, leading to his withdrawal.
5. Policy Shifts. Political landscapes can shift dramatically. For instance, early declarations in the Brexit referendum saw candidates having to frequently adjust their stances as new information and public opinions emerged, leading to perceptions of inconsistency.
6. Burnout. Campaigning is demanding, and a long campaign can lead to burnout. Marco Rubio’s early start in the 2016 Republican primary saw his campaign and team struggling to maintain energy and momentum, contributing to his eventual withdrawal.
Conclusion
The decision to declare candidacy early is a double-edged sword. While it provides numerous advantages like increased visibility, fundraising opportunities, and the ability to set the agenda, it also comes with significant risks, including voter fatigue, increased scrutiny, and resource strain. Candidates must carefully weigh these factors and tailor their strategies to their specific political contexts and personal capacities.
Ultimately, the timing of a candidacy declaration is crucial. To understand timing better, political mapping and sensing are necessary. This is where Solistrat can help. Solistrat specializes in political mapping and strategic planning, providing candidates with the insights and tools to decide when to declare their candidacy. With Solistrat’s expertise, candidates can navigate the complexities of political campaigns and optimize their chances of success.
For more information on what Solistrat does, click here or contact info@solistrat.com.